Skip to content
Anthony ERIBON

Projects / Forecasting and decisions

POD — Predict, Optimize, Decide

Actual POD interface with invented records, forecasts, scores and timings. These examples are not measured results.

Compare models, check calibration and inspect the distributions behind their scores.

Compare the same historical cases

NLL, RPS and bias compare matched cases. Group-restricted candidates are compared within their eligible population.

POD demand analytics showing matched model comparisons for negative log likelihood, ranked probability score and bias.
Actual demand comparison view; every score and observation count is invented. Full size

Check probability calibration

Compare nominal quantiles with observed coverage, then inspect coverage gaps and pinball loss.

POD quantile calibration showing model coverage curves against the nominal diagonal.
Actual calibration controls and plots with synthetic forecast outcomes. Full size

Inspect the distribution behind a score

Compare forecast and observed PMFs/CDFs, or open a historical case with its uncertainty band.

POD model-detail panel comparing predicted and observed probability mass and cumulative distributions.
Actual model-detail view using fictional historical demand and forecast distributions. Full size